Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates his touchdown pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
In 2010, the Green Bay Packers wrapped up the regular season at home against the Chicago Bears before winning as a wild card at the Philadelphia Eagles and, ultimately, winning the Super Bowl.
That was the Packers’ last trip to the Super Bowl.
With the Packers hosting the Bears last week and playing at the Eagles in a wild-card game on Sunday, can history repeat itself?
Maybe.
ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell analyzed advanced analytics to help predict every playoff game and had the Packers reaching the Super Bowl.
Here’s a Cliffs Notes version of a much, much longer playoffs preview.
NFC Wild Card: Packers at Eagles
The Packers lost to the Eagles 34-29 in Week 1 in Brazil. The Packers wasted some early takeaways, fell behind and couldn’t rally.
After a 2-2 start, the Eagles are 12-1. They are plus-17 in turnovers over that span.
The Packers, meanwhile, lost their last two games, which forced them into the postseason as the No. 7 seed.
However, the Brazil game was the debut for Green Bay’s defense under new coordinator Jeff Hafley. Meanwhile, Barnwell likes the matchup between Jordan Love against Vic Fangio’s top-ranked Eagles defense.
“The book to slow down Love this season has been to blitz,” Barnwell wrote, noting Love’s QBR was sixth when defenses didn’t blitz but 19th against the blitz. That’s why Love was the most-blitzed quarterback in the league.
“The Eagles, though, don’t really blitz,” Barnwell continued. “They send extra rushers just 20 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate. They have a great front four, which allows them to control the line of scrimmage with their pass rush, but Fangio likes to drop into coverage and trust that he can win with his defensive line. There’s nothing wrong with that philosophy, but it might not be the best fit for beating Green Bay.”
Ultimately, Barnwell said, the Packers’ advantage at kicker will be the advantage in the game.
NFC Divisional: Packers at Lions
Barnwell leaned heavily into the teams’ injuries, with the Packers in relatively good health with Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander the only starters on injured reserve, while the Lions seemingly have half their roster in the infirmary.
However, the beat-up Lions dominated the Packers for most of three quarters at Ford Field before holding on for a victory last month.
“I’m not sure the Packers can do much to slow down the Lions, but I’m even less confident in an injury-compromised Detroit’s chances of slowing down Green Bay,” Barnwell concluded.
NFC Championship: Packers at Rams
Oddly, the NFL’s three heavyweights are all out on Barnwell’s bracket, so the Packers will play at the Rams in his NFC Championship Game.
The Packers beat the Rams in October, but Matthew Stafford lined up without receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee. All three are back, which would pose a much different challenge in a rematch.
Barnwell went back to Love’s strengths and weaknesses vs. the blitz. When they met in Week 5, Love was 4-of-11 for 7 yards with one interception when the Rams blitzed.
Why would the Packers win this game? Because of their red-zone offense facing a Rams defense that has masked its defensive shortcomings by finishing fifth in the league in red-zone defense.
“Bend but don’t break isn’t a sustainable thing,” Barnwell said. “If a defense is not good outside the red zone but manages to thrive inside the 20, it gets figured out eventually.”
There’s a huge discrepancy in EPA; Barnwell said the Packers were third and the Rams were 17th.
“Green Bay is the more talented squad,” he said. “And although the Rams would be at home, it’s not hard to imagine how many Packers fans would travel to Los Angeles for this game. They wouldn’t regret the trip.”
Super Bowl: Packers-Chiefs
The 59th Super Bowl would be a replay of the first. And Love’s first Super Bowl start would be against the team at which he made his first NFL start.
In that game in 2021, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzed Love relentlessly. Spagnuolo loves to blitz and Love’s problems against the blitz have been well established.
The Packers would have two weeks to dissect the Chiefs’ defensive film to project what Spagnuolo might do; Spagnuolo would have two weeks to come up with new wrinkles.
“As good as (Chiefs coach Andy) Reid is as a game-planner with time to prepare, LaFleur might be his match,” Barnwell said. “What LaFleur did to build a plan around Malik Willis after Love’s early-season knee injury might have been the most impressive schematic work done by any coach all season.”
However, the Packers’ weaknesses would be exacerbated by the Chiefs’ strengths, and Patrick Mahomes’ patient style wouldn’t be fazed by how Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has played this year.
“This is a terrible matchup for the Packers,” Barnwell wrote.
The Chiefs get the three-peat, 27-13.
